The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that unemployment had dropped to 4.4%. What’s not noted in those administration-touting numbers is the number of people who have quit looking for a job and those who are not reported as looking because their unemployment benefits have run out.
The downturn in housing construction will soon affect the numbers by adding to the unemployed. Merrill Lynch, it was reported by Paul Krugman in his column of November 3, has predicted that the unemployment rate will increase to 5.8 % by the end of the year.
The other factors affecting employment numbers are (1) the overall state of the economy, which most analysts say is okay, but not exciting, with growth of 2.0-2.5% down from past years of 3% to 4.5%, (2) interest rates are pretty stable, with the Fed holding steady and expecting to, and (3) productivity, which is the amount of output each worker generates, and that rate of growth is lower this year from past years, but the substitution of technology for labor and outsourcing don’t speak well for job growth.
Everyone needs to be prepared for job loss. The world of work continues to be changing.
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